Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.833031 0.971094 1.124535 1.307669 1.520281 1.759347 2.048602
2025-01-12 0.581864 0.757428 0.974487 1.262425 1.634352 2.098677 2.722774
2025-01-19 0.448698 0.631509 0.875200 1.223501 1.708509 2.360195 3.303250
2025-01-26 0.379724 0.569470 0.838353 1.246652 1.850908 2.712580 4.036225
2025-02-02 0.344877 0.546339 0.847275 1.328719 2.079548 3.206372 5.028390
2025-02-09 0.307818 0.512200 0.832267 1.368818 2.245755 3.623336 5.955222
2025-02-16 0.273434 0.475927 0.807035 1.386330 2.374543 3.992968 6.849394
2025-02-23 0.242033 0.439228 0.774847 1.385746 2.469999 4.315448 7.700766
2025-03-02 0.213910 0.403698 0.739071 1.372606 2.539547 4.598629 8.514736
2025-03-09 0.192149 0.376275 0.713361 1.372789 2.630599 4.926533 9.443880
2025-03-16 0.167193 0.339190 0.664912 1.323773 2.623155 5.072978 10.051851
2025-03-23 0.161861 0.339409 0.686443 1.410680 2.884177 5.747367 11.744781
2025-03-30 0.142395 0.308958 0.645320 1.370267 2.893334 5.946272 12.543180
2025-04-06 0.124808 0.280034 0.603707 1.323715 2.884792 6.110689 13.297019
2025-04-13 0.110150 0.255261 0.567320 1.282948 2.882238 6.285272 14.091468
2025-04-20 0.102660 0.245339 0.561313 1.307213 3.022867 6.776492 15.629812
2025-04-27 0.100500 0.247331 0.581731 1.393224 3.311655 7.621536 18.059507
2025-05-04 0.095271 0.241298 0.583098 1.435250 3.504543 8.275136 20.131435
2025-05-11 0.088974 0.231757 0.575008 1.453603 3.643575 8.821127 22.016735
2025-05-18 0.082182 0.219995 0.560029 1.452991 3.736081 9.267610 23.714566
2025-05-25 0.075353 0.207178 0.540818 1.439220 3.793981 9.637215 25.267149
2025-06-01 0.069912 0.197281 0.527713 1.439412 3.887365 10.104493 27.124517
2025-06-08 0.062578 0.181201 0.496586 1.388040 3.839559 10.210563 28.056879